Exam Question

Submitted by rjmorris on Thu, 01/17/2013 - 23:56

Hi Everyone, 

I got this question on a practice exam yesterday and I cant seem to find a solution on how to correctly solve this type question/s, if asked on the real PMP exam... any help is greatly appreciated.

Question>     you are the project manager and in your project the overtime associated with the execution effort of a project are estimated at 180 hours and 270 hours with a probability 0.2. what is the monetary value of the amount of overtime?

Choices are: 

 A)  315

B) 231

C) 236

D) 384

 

Thanks in advance!

 

Forums: 
General Discussion
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sspawar

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 01:51

There is something wrong. Answer should be 234 hrs. Something is manepulated.

you may go through this related examples

5-B030 - A particular project manager tends to use assumption as the risk-handling strategy in most situations. The decision behavior of this project manager is referred to as:

Risk averse A)Risk seeker B)Risk neutral C)Risk mitigation D)References: \Kerzner (7th Edition) p. 906 \Anbari pp. 49-50

5-B031 - Based on historical data, the amount of overtime associated with the design effort of a particular project is estimated at 100 hours with0.40 probability, 200 hours with 0.40 probability, and 300 hours with 0.20 probability. The expected value of the amount of overtime is:

100 hours A)140 hours B)180 hours C)200 hours D)References: \Kerzner (7th Edition) pp. 909-910

5-B032 - Based on historical data, the amount of overtime associated with the execution of a particular project is estimated at 100 hours with0.50 probability, 200 hours with 0.40 probability, and 300 hours with 0.30 probability. The expected value of the amount of overtime is:

100 hours A)200 hours B)270 hours C)Not possible to calculate based on the data provided D)References: \Kerzner (7th Edition) pp. 909-910 \Anbari pp. 10 & 23-24

5-B033 - Based on historical data, the amount of overtime associated with the implementation of a particular project is estimated at 100 hourswith 0.20 probability, 200 hours with 0.30 probability, and 300 hours with 0.50 probability. The expected value of the amount of overtime is:

100 hours A)200 hours B)230 hours C)Not possible to calculate based on the data provided D)References: \Kerzner (7th Edition) pp. 909-910 \Anbari pp. 23-24

( http://www.scribd.com/doc/95936441/Project-Management-IQ-Risk )

rjmorris

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 02:07

Thanks for the reply, however; not sure how to run the routine...

How do you come up with the answer?

Having a little trouble finding the formula...

sspawar

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 04:04

In your question for 180hours - No probability is given


insecond task 270hrs with probability 0.2 = hence monetory value will be taken as = 54hrs


thus total monetoty value will be  = 180+54 = 234hrs


-----------------------------


or


For 180hrs if considered 0.8 (1-0.20) probability


expected hours = 0.8*180= 144hrs


thus total monetoty value will be = 144+54 = 298hrs


but both options are not there.

rjbuzzing

Sat, 01/19/2013 - 02:36

should we asssume the other probabilty be 0.8 ( 1.0 - 0.2 ) or it should be 100% for the first one. (your first case) 

rjmorris

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 20:24

Indeed Sir ! you are correct.... There was data missing from the question,  My error and I apologize for that.

I transposed the question wrong and when I went to recheck I found that I had missed some details.. However all was not lost.  Thanks to your comments I was able to answer the question correctly. The math is quite simple, just multiply the hours given by the probality (IE. 180hrs x 0.4 = 72) due this for each factor given and then add the answer together to get the final outcome of "amount of overtime"  simple enough!

So Thank You for your efforts and again my apologies

 

Robert.

 

sspawar

Fri, 01/18/2013 - 11:29

 


Above Question of Anbari and Kerzener an answers given


5-B031 - Based on historical data, the amount of overtime associated with the design effort of a particular project is estimated at 100 hours with0.40 probability, 200 hours with 0.40 probability, and 300 hours with 0.20 probability. The expected value of the amount of overtime is:


100 hours A)


140 hours B)


180 hours C)   =>4+.4+.2= 1.00 and 0.4*100 + 0.4*200 + 0.2*300 = 180


200 hours D)


References: \Kerzner (7th Edition) pp. 909-910


5-B032 - Based on historical data, the amount of overtime associated with the execution of a particular project is estimated at 100 hours with0.50 probability, 200 hours with 0.40 probability, and 300 hours with 0.30 probability. The expected value of the amount of overtime is:


100 hours A)


200 hours B)


270 hours C)


Not possible to calculate based on the data provided D) bks total is becoming = .5+.4+.3 =more than 1.


References: \Kerzner (7th Edition) pp. 909-910 \Anbari pp. 10 & 23-24


5-B033 - Based on historical data, the amount of overtime associated with the implementation of a particular project is estimated at 100 hourswith 0.20 probability, 200 hours with 0.30 probability, and 300 hours with 0.50 probability. The expected value of the amount of overtime is:


100 hours A)


200 hours B)


230 hours C) => 0.2+0.3+0.5 = 1.0 and 0.2*100 + 0.3*200 + 0.5*300 = 230


Not possible to calculate based on the data provided D)


References: \Kerzner (7th Edition) pp. 909-910 \Anbari pp. 23-24


Answer  5-B031C  5-B032D  5-B033C


hence main question is not correct.