Exam question clarification -math formula?

Submitted by Takahashi Ichigo on Fri, 07/08/2011 - 10:24

 I encountered  a following question:

you have a 50 % chance to make a 100 000 $ and a 65 % to lose 90 000 what is the outcome?

How to calculate these types of tasks?

Thank you, Takahashi

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PMP / CAPM exam Question bank
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rsang

Fri, 07/08/2011 - 10:51

 This is a basic earned value question:

Earned value= P X I (Probality X Impact)

In this case:  50 % chance to make a 100 000 - 65 % to lose 90 000

0.5 X 100000 - 0.65  X 90000

 = 50000 - 58500 = -8500

 

sharon199 (not verified)

Wed, 09/19/2012 - 19:41

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LionelMYoung

Thu, 09/20/2012 - 17:40

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Akshay Singh

Wed, 07/20/2011 - 14:57

You can apply earned value formula

EV=Chances * Impact value

 Positive Impact=50% * 100000=50000

Negative impact= 65% *90000=(-58500)

Overall impact =50000 +(-58500)=(-5850)

 

Brgds

Akshay Singh

akshay@emensuslearning.com

www.emensuslearning.com

 

 

RP's picture

RP

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 07:40

People - This is not EVM rather EMV.


EMV (Estimated monetary value) = Probability x Impact


 

rsang

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 11:02

 I meant Earned Value Management :)

RP's picture

RP

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 11:41

Yes, EMV is part of EVM and the question asked is in direct reference to EMV. An examination question wouldn't ask you to calculate the Earned Value Management but would rather (in these regards) ask you to calculate the Estimated Monetary Value.


EMV belongs to EVM and is the overall method. I'm sure or hope you know that.

rsang

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 15:00

 I would answer but I am not here to discuss nonsense. I am very sure what I know and what I don't and I don't need any comments about it.

RP's picture

RP

Fri, 07/22/2011 - 07:14

I am not here to exploit your weaknesses as I could care less but if you think you such huge smart ass, refer to page/s 387/513 on Rita M. (6th Ed) and page 298 of the PMBOK. Perhaps then, you could get something through your thick skull....


Also, after clarifying for myself - EMV (Expected Monetary Value) fals under the Risk Knowledge Area.

gabrielroj

Wed, 11/02/2011 - 16:40

Is an EMV Expected Monetary Value analysis, so RP is right, but remember, you can apply PMI CoE in your personal life, so do not forget that:

-------------------------------------------------

CHAPTER 3. RESPECT (PMI CoE)

3.1 Description of Respect 

Respect is our duty to show a high regard for ourselves, others, and the resources entrusted to us...

An environment of respect engenders trust, confidence, and performance excellence by fostering mutual cooperation — an environment where diverse perspectives and views are encouraged and valued...

We conduct ourselves in a professional manner, even when it is not reciprocated.  

 

Frances Tessler

Thu, 08/28/2014 - 13:21

This is an Expected Monetary Value question. The formula is as stated, PxI however you have both a Opportunity and a Threat which you must add. The Opportunity is the 50% chance to make 100k which is your positive and the threat is the 65% to lose 90k. So the formula would read:

.50 x 100k + .65 X -90k

50k + - 58,5000 = -8,500

Sandy10001

Fri, 08/29/2014 - 00:51

Yes, as stated earlier Expected Monetary Value is part of Risk Management. It's used to determine the probability of an outcome given these parameters. Remember that first you multiply PxI to determine priority, then use that information to calculate Expected Monetary Value.

Earned Value Management is used to determine progress on a project. You can look backward using Expected at Completion and forecast using To Complete Performance Index.

Knowing the purpose for each rather than just the calculations is very useful in determining the correct answer on the exam. This holds true for all the formula on the exam. Understand what the numbers are telling you - not just how to apply a formula.

protima676

Mon, 09/08/2014 - 06:38

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