EstimateProbability of project
Submitted by kmkan28 on Fri, 03/01/2013 - 09:02
Hi,
This is a question i have taken from the mock test.I am just looking for clarifiation in detail.If any one knows please share in this forum.
During the conceptual phase of pipeline project,the project engineer estimates the following.The cost of the materials to be most likely $100,000,optimistically $90,000 and pessimistically @120,000.The cost for labor most likely $80000.optimistically $70,000 and pessimistically $100,000.The cost for equipment most likely $60,000,optimistically $50,000 and pessimistically $70,000.The cost for construction management fees most likely $30,000,optimistically @20,000 and pessimistically @40,000.
What is the probability of project coming in under $ 2,70,000?
A. ZERO
B. Lessthan 50%
C. Exactly 50%
D. Over 50%
Forums:
sspawar
Fri, 03/01/2013 - 10:44
Permalink
Activity p o m exp p+6m+o/6 MAT 1,20,000 90000 100000 101666
Activity
p
o
m
exp
p+6m+o/6
MAT
1,20,000
90000
100000
101666.67
LAB
100000
70000
80000
81666.667
Equip
70000
50000
60000
60000
Mana Fee
40000
20000
30000
30000
Total expected value
273333.33
ASKED VALUE
270000
Correct answer will be
Option B
kmkan28
Fri, 03/01/2013 - 11:03
Permalink
How come we do it in 90 seconds
Thanks pawar it is the answer.
With in 90 seconds or even 2 minutes of time duration shall we able to do this kind calculation.
Anyone who has come across such a kind of questions in the PMP Exam?
sspawar
Fri, 03/01/2013 - 11:37
Permalink
I BELIEVE IT WOULD BE ONLY A
I BELIEVE IT WOULD BE ONLY A PRACTICE QUESTION.
IT IS NOT A PMP QUESTION.
PMP WILL ASK IF , WILL BE A SHORT QUESTION.
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Correction : formula written in main reply is incorrect p+6m+o/6, but calculation is done by correct formula (p+4m+o)/6